Michael Sakal is a former reporter for The Epoch Times. (Charlotte Cuthbertson/The Epoch Times) By Charlotte. The majority of rural America are our hard-working, blue-collar workers. Epoch Times Canada (@EpochTimesCan) November 16, 2020. Im not even sure what direction were going.. Of Wood Countys 92,119 registered voters, 9,479 of them are Democrats, 8,315 are Republicans, and 74,240 are independents, according to numbers from the Board of Elections. However, the political viewpoints of its residents are mixed as they have become more wary and leery of the government. The researchers also mapped all American counties (over 3,000) by their bellwether scorethat is their record of voting for the overall winner in each of the previous 10 presidential electionsgiving progressively larger weight to more recent elections. The upper Midwest, upstate New York, and northern New England are home to a disproportionate share of high scoring counties, they said. Shepherd said being able to bear arms is of particular importance now and she fears Democratic presidential candidate Joe Biden would restrict that right. The voter shift is happening statewide, and despite Democrats having 750,000 more registered voters, Republicans have gained 75,000 since 2016, while Democrats have lost 91,000. I think its very political right now, honestly. There is nothing we can do about it; the power is out of our hands.. We have to figure out a way to control fuel prices. He voted for Trump in the 2016 and 2020 presidential elections and said hed vote for him again if he were the Republican nominee. In particular, recent research which identified nineteen bellwether counties found that they tended to be whiter, older, less educated, have lower median incomes, have a lower percentage of workers in the labor force, and have higher rates of vacant housing than the country as a whole. These counties also disproportionately came from the Midwest and the Northeast. He also intends to vote in personto ensure his vote is counted that day, although he used a mail-in ballot to vote in the primary. She shook her head at the high price of gas. Supply chain issues also have plagued the restaurant industry, not just with food such as chicken and other meats, but also supplies, Chamberlin said. And its never going to come back.. Growth in recent years has been a challenge, if not nonexistent, he said. The price of gas at the Marathon gas station in Port Clinton was $3.39 a gallon on Feb. 22 whenDave Beggs, anarmy veteran and retired City of Port Clinton heavy equipment operator, pulled in. Now the places emerging as possible new bellwethers have more racially diverse populations. The City Center festival continued with Kyiv City Ballet, a Christopher Wheeldon duet and a daring work for Dayton Contemporary Dance Company. And then you have the Biden folks that are like, This is just nutty,' he said. The last time Ottawa County deviated from its winning choice for president was in 1960 when the county supported Republican Richard Nixon, but Democrat John F. Kennedy won. Theres too much corruption. Missouri fits this definition, as do six counties that have matched the national vote. But Hamilton thinks more changes are needed. Biden Extends National Emergency Due to Extraordinary Threat of Russian Actions in Ukraine, Tulsi Gabbard Says Election Fraud a 'Serious Threat,' Announces Bill Targeting Ballot Harvesting. March 3, 2023 Updated: March 3, 2023. He worked in HVAC repair with the local pipefitters union and also owns a small concession business, setting up at events. Until we have term limits for politicians, this country doesnt have a prayer.. To find out more about cookies and change your preferences, visit our, looked to ten allegedly bellwether counties, The Russia-Ukraine War: a challenge to international order, Global Energy Politics and Cost of Living Crisis, The New Normal: a dual track approach to health strategy and policy, Inside the Deal: how the EU got Brexit done. There is another bellwether list of 58 counties that has correctly picked each president since 2000. If he does not answer that issue clearly, I will not vote for him.. The ones he lost went to Biden by a margin of about 4 points on average. Only one, Clallam County in Washington, went for former Vice President Joe Biden and only by about a 3 point margin. When there was, we were making money pulling people out of ditches.. In particular, recent research which identified nineteen bellwether counties found that they "tended to be whiter, older, less educated, have lower median incomes, have a lower percentage of workers in the labor force, and have higher rates of vacant housing than the country as a whole." Bernard Grofman is Distinguished Professor of Political Science and Jack W. Peltason Chair of Democracy Studies at the University of California, Irvine. Jason Armagost of Mudbeards Bikes and Boards has chosen to stay out of politics and doesnt vote. As the 2022 mid-term elections near (May 3 in Ohio), one might think that the Republican and Democratic headquarters might be open and in full swing, but at both party offices the week of Feb. 21, the lights were out and no one was occupying the desks inside or answering the phones. The economy and good-paying jobs always have been an issue up here.. That streak ended in 2020 when voters cast the highest percentage of ballots for Republican Donald Trump14,628 (60.83 percent) to Democrat Joe Bidens 9,008 (37.46 percent). The Upper Mississippi River Valley and it [sic] surrounding area in particular appears to be an epicenter of these high-scoring bellwethers., Teresa Shepherd stands in front of her daughters house in Seelyvilee, Ind., on Oct. 20, 2020. The ones he lost went to Biden by a margin of about four points on average. That was a blow to the area, Miller said about Peloton ending its plans for a $400 million project. For example, a county might be said to be a "bellwether county" if it consistently votes the same way as the majority of the state. It also has a failing manufacturing sector with once Democratic-leaning union workers who may have found Trumps America First message appealing in recent years. We use cookies to understand how you use our site and to improve your experience. He likes that Trump upholds law and order amid the social unrest. Two states have announced recounts. Being poor, I do believe that we need a stable safety net for people. The way the system works now, if you get in as a young person on something small, its very hard to get out. Half the people are just wearing rags on top of their face. I just think theres going to be a lot of problems if he doesnt become our president all the violence and the riots. There are three counties that voted with the eventual winner for each of the past 10 elections,. Miller doesnt hesitate to say that he isnt happy with the current state of affairs and he doesnt know who hell vote for in the next presidential election. Only one, Clallam County in Washington, went for former Vice President Joe Biden and only by about a three-point margin. I quit voting once out of the union.. In 2020 the expansion also began generating $898,000 a year for the next 15 years for Lake Local Schools. January 4, 2021: Rep. Jordan tweets an Epoch Times article about his effort to challenge Electoral College votes. The Princeton political scientist, Edward Tufte opens his 1975 co-authored article on bellwethers with: Prior to the 1936 presidential election, the conventional political wisdom had it that as Maine voted, so went the rest of the nation. The Republican has been a big supporter of water quality on Lake Erie, and were looking to get another candidate that sees that as a priority.. The insulting back and forth really bothers me about any candidate, Myers said. "The Wall Street Journal and The Epoch Times independently analyzed the results of 19 counties around the United States that have nearly perfect presidential voting records over the last 40 years. The All-Or-Nothing Bellwether: These are states or counties that choose the national winner every time. It was everything, all at once, all of a sudden. If he wouldve just kept his mouth shut , Im not happy with the way things are now, Beggs added. And the media is just taking it overboard., Shepherd said of Trump: I do know that he is not a selfish person. John Hawker, a 74-year-old Port Clinton resident who grew up in Toledo, was sitting at the end of the bar and also weighed in on the state of affairs. Sam, who is a truck driver for Four City Technologies in Wellington but lives in Marblehead, said he drives about 400 miles a day to deliver bolts, nuts, and screws used in the auto industry. Since picking the winning candidate in Democrat Lyndon Baines Johnson in 1964, it has deviated from the winner only twice. I kind of keep in my bubble. Just off Interstate 75 at the Pemberville/Bowling Green exit, is Frickers, a popular eatery and gathering place for people of all ages, whereChris Chamberlin ofBowling Green works as the restaurants manager. In the southern area just off Interstate 75 sits Bowling Green, the county seat and home of Bowling Green State University and Doyt L. Perry Stadium, where the Falcons draw large crowds in the Mid-American Conference. For the first time in as long as she can remember, since becoming a registered voter 35 years ago, all three county commissioners are Republicans. Sawyer County, Wisconsin, and Clallam County, Washington, have substantial Native American populations, the authors said. The Democrats who are vying for that partys nomination are Morgan Harper, Traci Johnson, and Tim Ryan, who has been serving in Congress for the past 2o years, or 10 consecutive terms. The ones he lost went to Biden by a margin of about 4 points on average. Before the 2020 election, Clallam was one of 19 counties with an unbroken record of voting for the winning presidential candidate since 1980. Jacobs, 58, a gift store manager in Ridgway, said she voted for Obama but didnt follow politics closely at the time. Those dollars wont be there, because people will be buying gas. On Sept. 14, a federal judge ruled Wolfs shutdown and restrictions on businesses unconstitutional, but the governor has since appealed. We need to make sure we keep our gun rights.. Just two have populations in excess of 100,000, the authors said. But, just within the last year, the price of everything has gone up. If that date were to change, the Ohio legislature is the only one who can request to postpone or change the date of an election through legislative action.. Unbridled Evil: The Corrupt Reign of Jiang Zemin in China. In Terre Haute, 52-year-old Scott Hamilton said the main issue for him in this election is how divided the nation is; he said Trump is mostly to blame. Thus, for some sequences of elections there are indeed, bellwether counties. The cost of my prescriptions has gone through the roof. Armagost was lucky during the shutdowns, as bike shop repairs and maintenance were considered essential and he remained in business. Jim Hoft. That is, until this year. This includes personalizing content and advertising. In 2016, nearly 100 million eligible Americans didnt vote. Your email address will not be published. Ottawa County in Ohio has been on target every four years since 1964, and Bexar County in Texas (San Antonio) has had only one miss since 1928 (preferring the Democrat Hubert Humphrey in 1968). He worked for a tree service company for some years, but was laid off again. Its going to cause stealing, probably more riots, and all that., Weve had flu around forever, different strains of it. And its just so easy to snowball it to where chances are, if youre not very careful and work very hard in the other direction, you may just [continue a life of crime].. Over the past nearly 40 years, presidential elections have observed an intriguing phenomenon: 19 counties in the nation have always voted for the winner, be it Republican or Democrat. This belief in the efficacy of small numbers is probably strengthened by the fact that a random sample of only 2,000 or so voters is considered by statisticians large enough to predict election results in an electorate of well 140 million or so at least if the sample is truly random and the respondents are not lying either about their preferences or the likelihood that they will vote in the election. While declining to say which political party he supports or how he votes, he told The Epoch Times that he used to work at the Frickers in Findlay, which is south of Bowling Green, but transferred to his current location last year because of the high price of gas. We dont want it, she said. We need to be safe, and I dont think we are right now.. We find that bellwether success is almost entirely a matter of random coin tosses in multiple counties over time to create an appearance of predictive power that is a matter of chance. Hes organizing a Second Amendment rally in Ridgway for Oct. 17 to make sure gun rights are fresh in peoples minds when they head to the ballot box. Delaware's Kent County last missed in 1992. He didnt vote in 2016 either. January 5, 2021: Rep. Jordan attacks "liberal judges" and state officials for their role in the election. Shepherds family, on the other hand, wasnt much interested in politics. By continuing to use our site, you accept our use of cookies, revised Privacy Policy and Terms of Use. The Upper Mississippi River Valley and it [sic] surrounding area, in particular, appears to be an epicenter of these high-scoring bellwethers., Teresa Shepherd, resident of the Indiana bellwether county of Vigo, in front of her daughters house in Seelyville, Ind., on Oct. 20, 2020. Biden has talked both ways, so its hard for me to really grasp where he is on the issue. Peoples common sense level is cooked. Even Heidi Mackey, the clerk inside the station who said she hasnt voted since 2018, said shell likely vote in the May 3 primary. We use cookies to understand how you use our site and to improve your experience. I think they [the current administration] are trying to push us into buying electric cars. Its going to affect trucking, farming, everything. It was easy. The northern portion of the county, in towns such as Rossford and Northwood, is the blue-collar and working-class crowd and Perrysburg is home to upscale housing developments. It seems that Im having to think about whos lying the least, Myers said. However, in the 2020 primary election, more Democrats had turned out to vote3,413 to 2,598 Republicans, usually an indicator of how the presidential election is going to go, party officials believe. I would never vote any other way. I dont think my vote counts, he told The Epoch Times. The unequal geographic distribution is a somewhat curious phenomenon of bellwether counties. Enforce the ones that you do have, he said. Once the two 2016 presidential candidates were locked in, she knew she couldnt vote for Clinton, while Trumps promise to drain the swamp piqued her interest. I know a lot of people dont like him, because of his tweets and things that he says, and I kind of agree with that. He said hes had trouble getting a job for much of his life, because he was found guilty of a felony drug offense as a young man. Those counties were: Warren County, Ill. Vigo County, Ind. Residents who were asked about any candidate choices tended to be true to their reputation as a bellwether county, with more of a wait-and-see type of attitude of seeing whos going to step up as a presidential candidate in 2024. The roads are bad, the price of gas is high, its one thing after another. After the 46-state landslide, James Farley, Roosevelts campaign manager, revised the theory: As goes Maine, so goes Vermont.. He doesnt seem like a really bad guy. The United States needs to get back to where were responsible, energy independent, and get away from the thought process of these liberal socialists in office., Government is out of control, he added. The 2012 outcome seemed to be the beginning of a more robust shift to the right for the countywhile the state reelected Obama, Elk County had already moved on. Paul, a 51-year-old resident in Seelyvillejust east of Terre Hautewho also didnt disclose his last name, wont vote either. Over the same time period, Democrat registrations have dipped from 9,526 to 7,576. Supreme Court nominees also matter a lot to Myers in this election. I think a lot of us are fighting against socialism. Trump is challenging the results in several states, alleging fraud, voter suppression, and illegal restrictions on Republican poll watchers. Hawker said although Ottawa County tends to lean more Republican, he has noticed that a lot of senior citizens who are Democrats have moved into the area. People need to get a job, get out and work. A small-business owner, who didnt want to be identified, said hes voting for Biden. I got a life. Ron DeSantis, Miller said he likes Gov. Even wearing a mask, youre still not certain. Sawyer County, Wisconsin, and Clallam County, Washington, have substantial Native American populations, the authors said. Why is belief in the existence of bellwether states and counties (especially the latter) so strong? They need to take care of the older people here. When you were in the union, they always wanted you to vote for Democrats, Paul said. Fitch said almost half of the 5,000-strong Second Amendment group in Elk county are Democrats. Epoch Times, Gateway Pundit, and EveryLegalVote.com show a different electoral vote count for two reasons: They exclude states with pending litigation or recounts, subtracting votes from. But theyre happy with that and theyre proud of what they created. HOW THE SPECTER OF COMMUNISM IS RULING OUR WORLD. Its home to four universities, filled with many Democratic-leaning students. Given the global context of Russias invasion of Ukraine, they believe higher gas prices and inflation is coming, and theyre not happy about it. With the price of gas going up, Zulch is afraid of a return to high fuel prices caused by Hurricane Katrina in Louisiana 16 years ago and that soaring costs will again hurt his business. Farming also is a big part of Wood County's make up in northwest Ohio. Epoch Times: "Bellwether Counties Went Overwhelmingly for Trump in 2020" Find UFOs, The Apocalypse, New World Order, Political Analysis, Alternative Health, Armageddon, Conspiracies, Prophecies, Spirituality, Home Schooling, Home Mortgages and more, in: Rumor Mill News Reading Room, Current Archive Under a changed political landscape in Ottawa County, Commissioner Mark Coppeler, a Republican, also looked at the bigger picture. She said her husband will vote for Trump, too. Bellwether Counties Went Overwhelmingly for Trump in 2020 Teresa Shepherd, resident of the Indiana bellwether county of Vigo, in front of her daughter's house in Seelyville, Ind., on Oct. 20,. He said he finds it hard to believe Bidens claim that he never talked to his son Hunter Biden about his deals in Ukraine and China. By continuing to use our site, you accept our use of cookies, revised Privacy Policy and Terms of Use. dionisia pacquiao net worth; leer un archivo excel en sql server; alix pasquet iii relationship; american gold eagle type 1 vs type 2; sniper spotting scope; Theyre scared. We want to get people off of welfare, we need to get people back into working again, being self sustainable. As Figure 1 shows, with roughly 3600 counties, the number of counties which correctly predict the elections outcome can be non-trivial even for relatively long sequence of elections when the probability of a correct prediction is exactly 50 percent, i.e., a coin flip. They run the gamut from. And then theres Vigo Countyin Indianathe quintessential bellwether that has correctly picked the winner in all but two elections since 1888. Tisdell wanted to find out for himself, so he began to do his own research, reading mainstream news on both sides, as well as reports by independent citizen journalists. . Our roads need to be fixed. I vote for whoever I think is going to do the best job, Sam added. It will cycle through. Were not going to be able to afford this Democratic regime. "If. Carol Jacobs and her husband were lifelong Democrats until 2016. If I look back on my life, there is a swing toward the right, and then it swings back toward the left. Terry Titchner, 70, said hes voting for Biden because he doesnt trust Trump. We are a rural county here, Hill told The Epoch Times. Bernard Grofman University of California, Irvine Peloton plans to complete construction on the building on its 200-acre property and sell it, but will downsize its workforce. He considers Trump pro-life. He isnt so sure about Biden. Vigo County voters supported Trump by a 15 percent margin in 2016. He said Vigo County is fairly evenly divided between those who identify as Republicans and those who identify as Democrats. Vance. We need to address the economy and safety and security, Hawker said. Articles after the 2020 election examining the predictive power of previous bellwethers are found in other sources, including the Wall Street Journal and the Epoch Times. Rural white America is principally Trump, and they are ripe for conspiracy theories. At 6:30 pm we kick off an evening that showcases and celebrates Ukrainian arts and culture. Thats probably the biggest fear right now when I talk to people. Tom Wolf overstepped his boundaries during the pandemic. Bremer County, Iowa I find that hard to believe. Since he became a Christian in the mid-1990s, he said hes used his moral compass to determine his vote. Of their nineteen bellwethers, only Essex County, Vermont can be considered as a political competitive county. I dont watch TV. I mean the whole world ought to be mad at China, we should all be going to war against them. More importantly, someone needs to be in office who understands that running the country is like running a business, said Hawker, who worked as a staff engineer for Bendix Braking Systems in Elyria for 52 years. For much of the last decade, historically Republican suburban areas in Franklin, Ohio,. This includes personalizing content and advertising. I dont listen to the news. But what would be striking is for it to end so radically. Its been a long time since we were fully staffed with 35 cooks. And just a few miles outside the countys urban center of Terre Haute, youll find a sprawl of soybean and corn farms, with a rural demographic that often leans Republican. Hes concerned a Biden administration would mean an end to fracking, higher gas prices, and utility bill hikes. Trump swiped 51 of them by an average margin of nearly 15 points. Their fear is real, mine is. Portman wont be seeking reelection; seven Republicans are competing in the primary election for the partys nomination: Matt Dolan, Mike Gibbons, Josh Mandel, Neil Patel, Mark Pukita, Jane Timken, and J.D. Please read our comments policy before commenting. High scoring bellwether counties in these regions tend to border other high-scoring counties, unlike their counterparts in the South and West, which tend to see high scoring bellwethers somewhat isolated from each other. Im looking at both sides of it. She also said that many people who come into the pub are outspoken about the current state of affairs in the United States, especially on Saturdays when the crowds are larger. But thats not the picture I look at. Fannin plans to vote in person and is pretty sure Trump will win a second term, but hes concerned about the integrity of the mail-in ballots. In the northwest corner of Ohio sits a county with an enviable bellwether reputationonly twice over the past 60 years voting against the presidential winner. He won nineteen-to-twenty bellwether counties. 2016 Trump. Although longtime county residents say that Wood County is in pretty good shape overallas there has been some recent industrial development on its north sideit also has been affected by national issues such as inflation, the price of gasoline, supply chain issues, and workforce shortages. Not as large or as well-known as its more eastern cousin, Luzerne County, where much of the election attention has been focused, Elk County is just as accurate in predicting who will be the next commander in chief. Because of supply chain issues, its also difficult to find parts, Miller said. By continuing to use our site, you accept our use of cookies, revised Privacy Policy and Terms of Use. Charlotte Cuthbertson is a senior reporter with The Epoch Times who primarily covers border security and the opioid crisis. Republican registrations have increased from 8,467 on Nov. 9, 2016, to 9,960 as of Sept. 17 this year. For Brendon, another resident of Riley who declined to disclose his last name, his spiritual belief will lead him not to vote at all this year. Were offering a $250 bonus if someone can work 20 or more hours during their first four weeks of employment with us. Note: This article gives the views of the author, and not the position of USAPP American Politics and Policy, nor the London School of Economics. He loves his country to the point where he wants it to do well.. An Emerson poll conducted shortly before Election Day was completely off, showing Trump and Biden neck and neck. I dont feel good about the leadership in our country right now.. Many of its residents include farmers, retirees who love to fish, and more than 3,300 military veterans. Unbridled Evil: The Corrupt Reign of Jiang Zemin in China.